India's Residential Rooftop Solar Market Could Reach 132 GW by 2030: ISMA

September 17, 2026: India's residential rooftop solar market has the potential to expand to approximately 132 GW by 2030, compared with around 17 GW of residential rooftop capacity currently installed, according to a new assessment by the Indian Solar Manufacturers Association.

ISMA's Residential Rooftop Solar Market: Market Sizing & Growth Outlook estimates that another 115 GW of residential rooftop potential remains undeployed and projects annual installations of between 9 GW and 15 GW from 2026 through 2030.

The industry body said its estimate is based on residential electricity consumption, housing suitability and electricity tariffs charged by distribution utilities.

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ISMA Estimates 115 GW of Residential Rooftop Potential Remains

The 132 GW figure refers specifically to India's residential rooftop solar opportunity, rather than the country's entire rooftop-solar segment.

According to the ISMA assessment:

Residential rooftop solar metric	Estimate
Current residential rooftop capacity	~17 GW
Estimated 2030 market potential	~132 GW
Remaining potential	~115 GW
Expected annual installations through 2030	9–15 GW

India's total grid-connected rooftop solar capacity across residential and other consumer categories stood at approximately 30.1 GW as of June 30, 2026, according to data cited by pv magazine India. Residential installations account for around 17 GW of that total.

That distinction is important because the ISMA projection is focused on the residential market.

Report Sees 9–15 GW of Annual Residential Demand

ISMA projects that residential rooftop installations could run at between 9 GW and 15 GW annually through 2030.

The association said such a deployment rate would create a continuing demand pipeline across the rooftop-solar supply chain, including:

• solar modules;
• solar cells;
• inverters; and
• balance-of-system equipment.

The projection adds another demand factor for India's solar manufacturing industry, which has expanded module and cell production capacity substantially over the past several years.

PM Surya Ghar Remains a Major Part of Residential Installations

The ISMA report identifies PM Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana as a major driver of residential rooftop deployment.

The programme was launched in February 2024 with an approved outlay of ₹75,021 crore and a target of rooftop-solar installations covering one crore households by FY2026-27.

Official government data available on August 12, 2026 showed:

PM Surya Ghar metric	Official figure
Households benefiting	51.58 lakh
Rooftop capacity commissioned under scheme	14.8 GW
Subsidy transferred	~₹28,024 crore
Households reporting zero bills	Nearly 19 lakh

These figures were published by the Press Information Bureau in August.

More recent reporting in September cited programme figures of 47.8 lakh rooftop systems, 16.8 GW of installed capacity, around 56.9 lakh families benefiting, and more than ₹31,515 crore in central financial assistance disbursed.

The difference between the counts reflects different reporting dates and measures, including systems installed versus households benefiting.

ISMA Report Describes an ‘Affordability Effect’

ISMA said its assessment shows rooftop adoption increasingly extending beyond markets where residential solar was already financially attractive without policy support.

The association describes this as an “affordability effect”, with PM Surya Ghar support broadening installations into larger residential markets with longer unsubsidised payback periods.

The ISMA study estimates that around 8 GW of the potential residential market can pay for itself without subsidy, largely among high-consumption households facing comparatively high electricity tariffs. The remainder of the identified market is more dependent on support mechanisms under the current economics assessed by the report.

Business Standard also reported ISMA's finding that approximately 60% of capacity installed under the scheme is in markets where rooftop solar would not yet pay for itself without support.

PM Surya Ghar Programme Runs Through March 2027

The current PM Surya Ghar programme is targeted at reaching one crore residential households by March 2027.

With that deadline approaching, ISMA has called for early clarity on the framework that could follow the current programme.

ISMA Secretary General Amit Manohar said the association would prefer clarity by December 2026, including consideration of what it referred to as “PM Surya Ghar 2.0.”

“PM Surya Ghar 2.0” is an ISMA proposal or description for a possible next phase; the sources reviewed do not establish that the Government of India has formally announced a scheme under that name.

ISMA Links Policy Visibility With Manufacturing Planning

ISMA said visibility beyond the current March 2027 programme period would allow manufacturers and other market participants to plan investment, production capacity and domestic supply chains against expected rooftop demand.

The residential rooftop segment creates demand not only for modules but also cells, inverters, mounting equipment, electrical components and installation services.

The programme is also tied to domestic-content requirements for eligible subsidised systems, contributing to demand for domestically manufactured solar equipment.

Grid and Metering Constraints Also Appear in the ISMA Assessment

ISMA's report also identifies constraints beyond consumer demand.

According to reporting on the study, residential deployment is increasingly encountering grid-hosting and metering constraints as installations scale.

These issues relate to the ability of local electricity networks and administrative systems to accommodate a larger volume of distributed rooftop generation.

The report does not provide a single nationwide estimate for how much capacity is currently constrained by these factors.

Rooftop Solar Deployment Has Accelerated Since 2024

Government data shows the scale-up of PM Surya Ghar since its launch.

As of March 19, 2026, MNRE reported 26.19 lakh rooftop systems installed under the programme and ₹17,967.53 crore in central financial assistance disbursed.

By July 22, that figure had increased to 39.72 lakh systems, covering more than 48 lakh households.

By August 12, the government reported 51.58 lakh households benefiting and 14.8 GW commissioned under the scheme.

September reporting indicates the installation count and installed capacity have continued to increase.

Rooftop Solar Demand Adds to Domestic Equipment Requirements

ISMA's projection places residential rooftop demand alongside utility-scale, commercial and industrial solar as another major market for domestic component manufacturers.

The components identified in the report include:

Component	Demand linked to rooftop growth
Solar modules	Required for every rooftop PV system
Solar cells	Input into domestic module production
Inverters	Convert DC solar generation into usable AC electricity
Mounting systems	Support modules on residential roofs
Electrical BOS	Cabling, protection and connection equipment

ISMA specifically identifies modules, cells, inverters and balance-of-system components as areas likely to see demand if its residential growth projection materialises.

Existing Rooftop Solar Guides Remain Relevant as Installations Expand

The increase in residential deployment also expands the number of households going through the solar panel installation process, including system sizing, equipment selection, installation and grid connection.

Key Numbers

Metric	Latest figure / projection
Residential rooftop solar installed	~17 GW
Total grid-connected rooftop solar, June 2026	30.1 GW
ISMA residential market potential	132 GW
Untapped residential potential	~115 GW
Forecast annual residential demand	9–15 GW
PM Surya Ghar household target	1 crore
Target date	March 2027
Official capacity under PM Surya Ghar, Aug. 12	14.8 GW
Official households benefiting, Aug. 12	51.58 lakh
Official subsidy transferred, Aug. 12	~₹28,024 crore
September-reported installed systems	47.8 lakh
September-reported capacity	16.8 GW
September-reported families benefiting	~56.9 lakh
September-reported CFA	₹31,515+ crore

Sources: ISMA reporting, MNRE/PIB and industry publications.

December 2026 Is the Next Policy Date Requested by ISMA

ISMA has asked for clarity on a possible next phase of residential rooftop support preferably by December 2026, ahead of the existing programme's March 2027 target date.

No formal “PM Surya Ghar 2.0” programme is established by the sources reviewed here.

The next developments for the market will therefore include any government announcement on post-March 2027 policy, continued PM Surya Ghar installation data and progress toward the programme's one-crore-household target.

Vantage Radar will track subsequent MNRE announcements and updated residential rooftop-capacity figures.

Conclusion

ISMA estimates India's residential rooftop solar market has a potential size of approximately 132 GW, compared with around 17 GW installed at present, leaving roughly 115 GW still undeployed.

The association forecasts annual residential additions of 9–15 GW through 2030 and identifies PM Surya Ghar as a major factor behind the recent increase in household installations.

The current government programme continues toward its target of one crore households by March 2027, while ISMA has asked for policy clarity by December 2026 on what may follow.

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Sources

ISMA market outlook reported by pv magazine India: 132 GW residential potential, 115 GW undeployed, 9–15 GW annual installations and methodology.

Business Standard: ISMA rooftop-market report, subsidy-driven adoption, grid and metering constraints, and post-2027 policy discussion.

Press Information Bureau: Official PM Surya Ghar figures through August 12, 2026, including 51.58 lakh households, 14.8 GW and ₹28,024 crore of subsidy transfers.

MNRE / PIB: PM Surya Ghar's one-crore-household target and programme implementation.