India's Residential Rooftop Solar Market Could Add Up to 15 GW a Year Through 2030

India’s residential rooftop solar market could add 9 GW to 15 GW of capacity every year between 2026 and 2030, according to a new assessment by the Indian Solar Manufacturers Association (ISMA), pointing to a potentially sustained expansion in household solar installations.

ISMA’s Market Sizing and Growth Outlook estimates the residential rooftop solar opportunity at about 132 GW, with roughly 115 GW still to be deployed. The assessment is based on national residential electricity consumption, household housing characteristics and electricity tariffs charged by distribution utilities.

The opportunity is considerably larger than India's existing residential rooftop base. According to pv magazine India, the country had 30.1 GW of grid-connected rooftop solar capacity as of June 30, 2026, while residential rooftop installations accounted for about 17 GW. PM Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana had added 13.5 GW by July, according to the report.

PM Surya Ghar is driving household demand

The government’s PM Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana has become a key driver of residential rooftop solar adoption, according to ISMA's assessment.

The scheme is also supporting demand for domestically manufactured solar components, including cells, modules, inverters and balance-of-system equipment. That could create a larger market not only for manufacturers but also for EPC companies, installers and system integrators as residential installations scale up.

ISMA estimates that around 8 GW of the potential residential market can pay for itself without subsidy, particularly in larger-consumption households and states where electricity prices are relatively high. The remaining opportunity, according to the association, continues to require support under PM Surya Ghar.

The report also describes an “Affordability Effect”: rooftop solar adoption is expanding beyond markets where the economics are naturally strongest, with government support helping make installations viable for households in larger residential markets.

What happens after March 2027?

One of the key questions for the industry is what happens when the current PM Surya Ghar programme approaches its March 2027 end date.

ISMA Secretary General Amit Manohar said early clarity on the programme's next phase, including consideration of PM Surya Ghar 2.0, would help maintain continuity and give consumers and industry participants greater visibility. ISMA has suggested that such clarity preferably come by December 2026.

For manufacturers and other companies in the rooftop solar supply chain, policy continuity matters because the projected 9–15 GW annual installation opportunity depends partly on sustained demand. For households, the availability and structure of future support could influence the economics of installing solar.

The numbers therefore describe a large potential market, rather than a guaranteed installation outcome. Whether India reaches the projected annual additions will depend on household economics, policy support and the ability of the industry to deliver installations at scale.

Sources

https://www.pv-magazine-india.com/2026/09/16/india-could-add-9-15-gw-of-residential-rooftop-solar-annually-through-2030-isma/

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2026/09/17/india-could-add-9-15-gw-of-residential-rooftop-solar-annually-through-2030-isma/

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/rooftop-solar-market-has-potential-to-reach-132-gw-by-2030-isma/amp_articleshow/134281610.cms